Paris Agreement falls short as climate risks accelerate

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, driven by an ambition gap and an implementation gap.

Global temperatures reached a record high in 2024, with annual warming exceeding 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for the first time.

The remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 degree goal is nearly exhausted, increasing the probability of crossing critical geophysical tipping points.

Ocean heat content set a new record for the ninth consecutive year in 2025, while sea-level rise has more than doubled compared to the 1990s, reaching 4.7 millimeters per year.

The authors define the crisis as a triple-track problem involving escalating physical risks, a persistent cognitive awareness gap, and weak political incentives that hinder decisive global action.

The working paper utilizes three complementary frameworks to evaluate policy trade-offs under deep uncertainty.

Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios demonstrate how early, orderly mitigation acts as financial insurance, whereas delayed action triggers severe macroeconomic losses and fiscal strains.

Furthermore, the climate policy trilemma highlights the challenge of balancing mitigation, adaptation, and restoration under tight fiscal budgets.

Finally, the authors outline seven practical levers, including higher carbon pricing aligned with the social cost of carbon, expanded renewable deployment, innovative climate finance, and robust carbon management.