Private providers account for half of public services job growth
Only around half of the 6.9 million euro area public services jobs created from 2008 to 2025 were public-sector jobs, the European Central Bank (ECB) estimates. Health and social work drove growth, with private and non-profit providers absorbing much of the demand.
Health drives the expansion
Health and social work added 4.8 million workers from 2008 to 2025, nearly 70 percent of public services employment growth.
Only around 1.9 million were public-sector jobs.
Over the last three years, health employment grew around 2 percent annually, against 0.8 percent in public administration and defence and 1.2 percent in education.
Public services generated over one-third of employment growth despite employing less than one-quarter of workers.
By end-2025, their employment share exceeded 2019 by around 0.8 percentage points, near its 2021 peak.
Around 85 percent of surveyed education and public administration workers report public employers, versus fewer than 40 percent in health and social work.
Ageing demand crosses employer boundaries
Residential care and social work added over 2.6 million workers since 2008, against around 2.1 million in traditional health activities.
Elderly and disability care accounted for most care-related growth; countries with larger increases in their population share aged 65 and above generally recorded stronger gains.
Public employers account for roughly 64 percent of health and social work employment in Finland, versus around 30 percent in Germany and Belgium.
The ECB applies average employer shares from its 2022-26 Consumer Expectations Survey to employment data back to 2008.
Payrolls are not fiscal footprints
The estimates distinguish employers, not the fiscal cost of services.
They assume that employer shares have remained broadly unchanged since 2008 and that new jobs resemble the existing stock.
Private-sector jobs may still receive state funding through social transfers in kind or long-term care insurance.