European Central Bank
ECBPaper
Longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored after energy shock
An ECB Economic Bulletin analysis shows that longer-term euro area inflation expectations remain broadly anchored across consumers, firms and professional forecasters following recent energy price shocks.
Focus
ECBPaper
Euro area youth unemployment climbs to 15.1 percent
The euro area youth unemployment rate reached 15.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026 as overall labor demand cooled.
ECBPaper
Narrow fiscal space limits euro area energy shock response
Euro area governments have deployed minimal fiscal support of 0.1 percent of GDP following the 2026 Middle East energy shock, as elevated borrowing costs and a 3.3 percent structural deficit constrain fiscal policy compared to the 2022 energy crisis.
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ECBPaper
Key interest rates held at 2.25 percent as energy shock lingers
The European Central Bank kept its key deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25 percent at its July meeting.
ECBPaper
Policy uncertainty subtracts 0.4 percentage points from euro area GDP
A new ECB Economic Bulletin article shows that policy uncertainty shocks subtracted roughly 0.4 percentage points from euro area GDP growth in 2025.
ECBPaper
Earnings call data sharpens euro area job vacancy forecasts
A new ECB working paper shows that extracting text-based labour demand indicators from corporate earnings calls significantly improves short-term forecasts of euro area job vacancy rates.
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ECBPaper
Stock market and sovereign shocks pose greatest risk to bank capital
A European Central Bank working paper introduces MuSE, a simulation engine designed to generate thousands of macro-financial stress scenarios.
ECBDecoder
Energy price surges drive euro area home renovation wave
Rising energy costs and falling equipment prices are driving an energy-efficiency renovation wave across the euro area.
ECBPaper
EU venture capital funds lag US by sixfold at 150 billion euros
Venture capital funds located in the United States hold approximately 930 billion euros, about six times the 150 billion euros managed by EU funds.
ECBPaper
Job security drives European job search while pay leads in US market
An ECB working paper by Bick, Dias da Silva, and Weißler reveals that 13 percent of European workers and 19 percent of U.S. workers actively search while employed.
ECBPaper
Severe model defects drive majority of supervisory capital add-ons
Severe model defects, rather than the total number of flaws, drive supervisory capital add-ons imposed on euro area banks using internal ratings-based models.
ECBPaper
Energy price shocks hit low income households twice as hard
An ECB study shows energy price surges act as an open-economy income tax that hits poorest households hardest.