European Central Bank
ECBPaper
Supply chain linkages amplify inflation shocks and persistence
An ECB working paper demonstrates that incorporating production network linkages into Bayesian vector autoregressions reveals stronger and more persistent inflation spillovers from sectoral shocks, with supply chain structures significantly amplifying energy and agricultural price pass-through.
Focus
ECBPaper
Middle East war shock curbs euro area spending
The war in the Middle East caused euro area consumer confidence to drop by 12 index points between February and April 2026, lowering nominal consumption growth from over 3 percent to 2.5 percent.
ECBDecoder
Refining margins amplify Middle East crude oil shocks at the pump
Retail diesel prices in the euro area jumped by a third to 2.18 euros per litre in April 2026 following Middle East conflict shocks.
Latest
ECBPaper
Updated guide details government finance statistics framework
The European Central Bank has published its updated Government Finance Statistics guide to implement Guideline ECB/2025/9. The publication details reporting rules for national central banks and statistical institutes on general government revenue, deficit, debt, and EU budget transactions.
ECBPaper
Income risk stems from job transitions rather than persistent shocks
An ECB working paper shows that individual productivity shocks are far less persistent than previously estimated, with income risk primarily driven by job transitions and worker heterogeneity.
ECBPaper
FABART model reveals asymmetric impact of oil supply news shocks
An ECB working paper introduces the FABART framework to analyze US oil supply news shocks from 1974 to 2019.
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ECBNews
Digital euro app to exceed European accessibility standards
The European Central Bank has unveiled accessibility features for its digital euro app that go beyond European Accessibility Act requirements.
ECBPaper
AI indicator SPOT quantifies financial stability risk triggers
Researchers from the European Central Bank have developed an AI-based indicator called SPOT to systematically extract and quantify potential financial stability trigger events from news texts.
ECBPaper
Endogenous threshold VAR solves price puzzles in monetary policy
An ECB working paper by Dimitris Christopoulos, Peter McAdam, and Elias Tzavalis introduces a copula-based control function for threshold vector autoregressions with endogenous state variables.
ECBDecoder
Supply shocks dominate current euro area inflation surge
An ECB analysis shows the 2026 rise in euro area headline inflation from 1.9 percent to 2.8 percent is primarily driven by energy supply shocks rather than demand.
ECBNews
Wage tracker indicates stable negotiated pay growth of 2.7 percent
The European Central Bank's wage tracker shows negotiated wage growth stabilizing at 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2027.
ECBPaper
Euro area firms widely adopt AI but intensive use lags at 7 percent
Approximately 70 percent of euro area firms report using artificial intelligence, but only 7 percent describe their adoption as significant.