European Central Bank
ECBPaper
Retail sentiment predicts next-day equity prices during downturns
An ECB working paper introduces the Reddit Retail Investor Sentiment Indicator, built from 8.5 million social media posts between 2015 and 2026.
Focus
ECBPaper
Random forests reveal non-linear tail risks in bank stress tests
A machine learning framework using random forests improves corporate default predictions and reveals non-linear tail risks across European banks.
ECBSpeech
Cipollone sees stagflation risk as remote amid resilient growth
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone dismissed stagflation concerns following supply shocks, pointing to economic resilience and anchored inflation expectations.
Latest
ECBNews
Consumers lower inflation expectations to 2.9 percent
Euro area consumers trimmed their median 12-month inflation expectations to 2.9 percent in July from 3.0 percent in June.
ECBPaper
Aggregate EU labour participation proves resilient to growth shocks
An ECB study finds the aggregate European labour force participation rate remains resilient to economic downturns, unlike in the United States.
ECBPaper
Bond funding and fixed loan rates dampen policy rate pass-through
Euro area banks relying on bond issuance and fixed-rate lending adjust corporate loan rates significantly more slowly to policy rate shifts than money-market-dependent lenders, according to an ECB working paper covering 266 institutions from 2007 to 2023.
More Topics
ECBPaper
Lower import cap and labor gap refine euro area inflation gauges
European Central Bank economists have revised the methodologies for measuring euro area domestic and Supercore inflation under the new ECOICOP version 2 basket.
ECBSpeech
Lagarde urges market scale as Europe post-war growth model erodes
Speaking at the World Economic Forum on August 19, 2026, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that Europe's post-war growth model is eroding.
ECBSpeech
Higher defence spending lifts euro area GDP and real interest rates
European Central Bank Executive Board member Philip R. Lane presented analysis on August 17, 2026, showing that rising defence spending across the euro area will moderately boost economic growth and inflation while expanding public debt and long-term interest rates.
ECBDecoder
Euro area holds 440 billion euros in US tech equities
Historical technological booms indicate a stock market correction for AI valuations is likely.
ECBDecoder
Chinese industrial subsidies boost strategic sector exports
A new European Central Bank blog analysis reveals that government support for Chinese manufacturing firms reached 2.0 percent of costs in 2024, driving exports in strategic industries like semiconductors, solar energy and automobiles.
ECBPaper
Short video boosts digital euro adoption by 12 percentage points
A European Central Bank study reveals that watching a short explanatory video increases consumer willingness to adopt a digital euro by 12 percentage points.